Future-Proof Decision Support in Agriculture: Scenario-Based Approaches for Resilient Digital Systems
On June 5, 2026, Ariane Voglhuber-Slavinsky and Ewa Dönitz (Fraunhofer ISI) presented their article at the Agriculture for Life Conference in Bucharest, showcasing new insights into the future design of digital decision support systems (DSS) for agriculture.
The article presents a forward-looking approach to designing digital decision support systems (DSS) that can remain relevant under highly uncertain future conditions in agriculture. Building on the DAKIS project, the authors apply a structured scenario-planning methodology to explore how different technological, environmental, political, and societal developments may influence farmers’ needs. By developing four contrasting future scenarios, the study provides a robust foundation for identifying both stable (“future-proof”) and context-specific requirements for digital agricultural tools.
A key contribution of the work lies in linking foresight with practical system design. Through stakeholder engagement and co-creation processes, the scenarios are not only conceptual but directly translated into functional requirements for DSS development. The analysis shows that modularity, interoperability, and transparent, explainable analytics are essential features across all futures, while other functionalities depend strongly on specific framework conditions such as regulation, market structures, or levels of technological adoption.
Importantly, the article highlights how digital systems can support the transition toward more sustainable and resilient agricultural systems by integrating biodiversity and ecosystem services into everyday decision-making. By embedding these aspects alongside economic considerations and linking them to emerging valorization mechanisms, DSS can help turn sustainable practices into viable business cases for farmers. In this way, the contribution demonstrates how DAKIS combines digital innovation, systems thinking, and stakeholder perspectives to advance agriculture toward a more sustainable future.
